Exam time.

Looks like APs are finally coming up. Even though the date had always been scribbled on the whiteboard, it was just a date, not something I could identify with. Didn't really realise until we filled in the AP admin forms. And like a speeding train rushing down a hill, it hit me. APs are really coming.

Also, its the littlest things that panic you. Like reading through a Physics AP prep textbook, looking at mechanics and going, "Oh hey, I remember this, year 1!" And it hits you. Again. This is the finale of our 6 years. That certainly panicked me.

Ah well. There are only three things certain in life. Death, taxes, and regret.

Went out today to the new mall on impulse. That and free pizza and 33% off Starbucks Coffee. Later that day, I was introduced to a new concept that I didn't know of before. And some of you may think its bloody obvious, but I honestly never heard of them. Private blogs.

The very notion is an oxymoron, and I'm surprised to find that they're pretty commonplace. Definitively, a blog is where you share your feelings and thoughts with the world. So why put secrets on the internet? Possibly that you need to jot them down for reflection afterwards, but then wouldn't a diary suffice? But then I guess, if you don't publicize it, its like a sort of e-diary. Which brings me to my next point: locked posts on public blogs. Another oxymoronic idea, but this time, instead of secretly jotting them down somewhere away from public, you basically alert other people that you have a secret, and refuse to tell them. Attention seeking, if you ask me. After all, you should have trusted friends on MSN to talk to about these things. Or even better, lock them up in your head.

Anyway, its AP season and I should really get back to studying, but first, a practical application of statistics! :D

Assumptions: All variables considered are assumed to be independent.

All reasonable conservative estimates are within 5% of actual.

All calculations can be performed in any order

(Most statistics taken from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Singapore)

There are 4,987,600 people in Singapore.

72.2% are Chinese: 4987600 * 0.722 = 3601047

51% are female = 3601047 * 0.51 = 1836534

76.1% are 15 - 64 years old: Reasonable conservative estimate: 10% are 17 - 20 years old.

1836534 * 0.10 = 183653

27.7% are enrolled into JC (retrieved from:http://www.moe.gov.sg/education/education-statistics-digest/files/esd-2010.pdf)

183653 * 0.277 = 50872

Reasonable conservative estimate: 10% have roughly the same interests or personality

50872 * 0.10 = 5087

Reasonable conservative estimate: 40% are already in a stable relationship

5087 * 0.6 = 3052

Reasonable conservative estimate: Of those who are not, 50% do not want a relationship

3052 * 0.5 = 1526

Reasonable conservative estimate: 70% are physically acceptable

1526 * 0.7 = 1068.2

Remove 10% (5% on each side) of the outliers

1068.2 * 0.9 = 961.38

961 JC girls 17 - 20 who share similar interests, are physically and mentally similar and not in a relationship.

Thus, if I were to walk out now, the probability of meeting such a girl is 0.00019 or 0.019%

Based on previous data, a reasonable conservative estimate of success rate in asking a girl out is 1%. So the chances of meeting a suitable girl and successfully asking her out is now 0.0000019 or 0.00019%

Thus, using a geometric distribution, and assuming the girls are chosen randomly and the probability for each girl is 0.01, find the number of girls, n, needed in order to have a 90% chance of being successful.

1 - (1 - 0.01)^x =0.9

x = 230

I will have to try 230 times to get a 90% chance for a girl from the 961 to go out with me.

This is sad.